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Beads come from one of two jars. Buy evidence until you are sure enough — but every bead costs.
One of the two jars is chosen in secret and every bead you draw comes from that jar. The left jar is mostly red and the right one mostly blue, in the mix printed above them. Draw as many beads as you like, then declare which jar it is. A correct call pays the round's prize minus the cost of every bead you drew; a wrong call pays nothing and costs one of your three lives. Each round the two jars grow more alike, beads get more expensive and the prize gets bigger, so guessing blind burns through lives while buying beads until you are certain leaves nothing to win. Your score is what you keep.
The single number worth carrying in your head is the difference between the two colours, not the total you have drawn. Seven red and four blue is the same evidence as three red and zero blue: a lead of three. Beads that cancel out told you nothing and cost you the same as beads that counted.
How big a lead you need depends entirely on the mix. At seventy-thirty each bead is strong and a lead of two or three already puts you past four to one. When the jars drift toward fifty-five and forty-five, a single bead barely moves anything and you may need a lead of six or seven for the same confidence — while the beads now cost several times what they did in round one. That is the whole squeeze of the game, and it arrives sooner than most players expect.
So the mistake to avoid is a fixed habit. Players who always draw three, or always draw until they feel sure, both lose: the first starts guessing when the jars get close, the second hands the entire prize back in bead costs. Read the mix at the top of each round and set your target lead from it before you draw a single bead.
One round late in a run is worth several early ones, so protect your lives rather than your points. If a round has already eaten most of its prize and the lead is still one, it is usually right to buy the extra bead anyway. Losing that round's profit costs you a little; losing a life costs you every prize you would have collected afterwards.