Texas Hold'em Odds: The Numbers That Actually Decide Hands

Updated August 2026

Almost every decision in Hold'em comes down to comparing two percentages. This guide gives you both, and every figure below was computed by running out the actual card combinations rather than quoted from memory — the five-card hand frequencies were checked against the full 2,598,960-hand enumeration, and the head-to-head numbers come from dealing every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards.

Pot odds: the price you are being offered

When you face a bet, the pot is quoting you a price. If there are 200 chips in the middle and calling costs 100, you are risking 100 to win 300, so you need to win 100 ÷ 300 = 33% of the time just to break even. That is the entire calculation. A pot-sized bet always asks you to win 33%; a half-pot bet asks for 25%; a bet of a quarter of the pot asks for only 17%.

This is why small bets are so hard to fold against and why big bets are so effective as bluffs. Against a quarter-pot bet you only need to be right one time in six, so folding a hand with any real chance is a mistake. Against an all-in for twice the pot you need to be right 40% of the time, which almost nothing is.

What your two cards are actually worth

Before any community cards, here is how often each starting hand beats one random opponent. The suffix s means suited, o means offsuit.

The premium group: AA 85.3%, KK 82.5%, QQ 79.9%, JJ 77.3%, TT 74.8%, 99 72.0%, 88 68.8%, AKs 66.8%, AQs 66.1%, 77 66.1%, AKo 65.6%, AJs 65.5%, ATs 64.6%, AQo 64.4%.

The middle of the pack, right around a coin flip: 98s 51.0%, Q6o 50.8%, T7s 50.8%, 22 50.7%, K2o 50.1%.

The bottom: 43o 35.0%, 72o 34.7%, 62o 34.4%, 52o 34.2%, 42o 33.2%, 32o 32.5%.

Two things jump out. First, a small pocket pair like 22 is genuinely a coin flip against a random hand, not a weak holding — it is only weak against the hands people actually raise with. Second, the spread between the best and worst hand is smaller than most beginners assume: even 32o wins nearly a third of the time against one opponent. Hold'em is not decided by being dealt better cards, because you are not dealt much better cards.

The classic matchups are closer than they feel

These are exact, averaged across suit combinations where it matters:

• AA vs KK — 81.9%. The nightmare scenario loses one time in five.
• AKo vs QQ — 43.2%. The famous "race" that is not quite a race.
• AKs vs 22 — 50.1%. A genuine coin flip, to within a tenth of a percent.
• 99 vs AKo — 55.3%. The pair is the favourite, which surprises people.
• AKo vs JTs — 58.8%. Two live cards close the gap a long way.
• AQo vs KJo — 63.1%. Domination is worth about 13 points of equity.

The practical consequence is that no single hand is safe enough to justify getting all the chips in every time you see it, and no all-in call is as hopeless as it feels in the moment. If you fold everything except aces you will be blinded away long before the aces arrive.

Counting outs on the flop

After the flop there are two cards to come and 47 unseen cards. A rough shortcut that is accurate to a point or two: multiply your outs by four for the chance of hitting by the river, or by two for the chance of hitting on the next card alone. A flush draw has nine outs, so about 35% by the river. An open-ended straight draw has eight outs, about 32%. A single overcard pairing gives three outs, about 12%.

Now put the two halves together. With a flush draw you win roughly 35% of the time, so you can call a pot-sized bet (which needs 33%) but not a bet of one and a half times the pot (which needs 43%). That comparison, made honestly, is most of what separates a losing player from a break-even one.

A practical plan

1. Before you call anything, say the price out loud: bet size divided by final pot. That is your target.
2. Estimate how often you win — outs times four after the flop, or the starting-hand number before it.
3. If the target is bigger than your estimate, fold, no matter how attached you are to the hand.
4. When you are the one betting, size to the number you want your opponent to get wrong. A pot-sized bet makes their draws unprofitable; a quarter-pot bet makes almost nothing unprofitable.
5. Play more hands in position and fewer out of it. Acting last is worth more than several places in the starting-hand table.

None of this requires memorising charts. Two numbers, compared honestly, will get you further than any amount of reading faces — especially against a computer, which does not have one.